Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Frameworks Technical Assistance (TA) on Developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT)
Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Frameworks Technical
Assistance (TA) on Developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT)
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Volume/Issue:
Volume 2025
Issue 099
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Topics covered in this book
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Inflation , Money and Monetary Policy , Monetary policy , Central banks , Inflation , Output gap , Exchange rate , Monetary policy transmission , Forecasting , Quarterly Projection Models , , Exchange rates , Inflation , Time series analysis
Summary
This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2021 and mid-2025 over a total of eleven missions, five in-person and six virtual. The project focused on building new institutional capacity for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, along its integration into monetary policy processes and external communications. NRBT staff made remarkable progress and built a strong skillset for providing analytical support to policymakers. Model-based work plays an important role in the NRBT internal discussions and represents an important input in forward-looking monetary policy formulation. Recommendations relate to ensuring FPAS work sustainability and further streamlining external communications.
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