Guatemala: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System at Bank of Guatemala (BANGUAT)

An IMF technical assistance mission to the Banco de Guatemala (BANGUAT) reviewed the central bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to strengthen monetary policy making under inflation targeting. Discussions focused on the FPAS’s role in policy decision-making, coordination across departments, and use of forecasting models and tools. The mission found that while BANGUAT has made good progress—including the development of a new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) and adopting more forward-looking decision-making processes—some institutional frictions, coordination challenges, and gaps relative to international best practices remain. To address these, the mission recommended enhancing the organization and governance of the forecasting process, fully integrating the QPM into regular forecasting and policy discussions, and improving data management and collaboration mechanisms across departments to produce a more coherent and policy-relevant forecast.