Republic of Congo: 2024 Article IV, Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review

The fourth review of a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) was concluded on December 20, 2023. Economic growth momentum softened in 2023 as oil production surprised on the downside, which, together with the 2023-2024 floods, challenges in the provisioning of electricity, and weaker public investment, weighed on non-hydrocarbon growth as well. Growth is expected to recover to close to 4 percent over the medium term. Under-execution of public spending across the board, but particularly on capital expenditures and social transfers, brought the 2023 non-hydrocarbon primary deficit to 8.4 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP, which is 3.2 percentage points lower than projected in the fourth review (CR 24/2). However, the current account weakened, a trend that is projected to continue over the medium term, as oil production stagnates while oil prices are slightly trending down. Despite external arrears remaining below the de-minimis threshold, public debt is assessed as sustainable but “in distress” due to frequent accumulation of new external arrears and lingering uncertainty about the size of domestic arrears.