A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)

Author: Francisco G. Dakila Jr., Dennis M. Bautista, Jasmin E. Dacio, Rosemarie A. Amodia, Sarah Jane A. Castañares, Paul Reimon R. Alhambra, Jan Christopher G. Ocampo, Charles John P. Marquez, Mark Rex S. Romaraog, Mr. Philippe D Karam, Daniel Baksa, and Mr. Jan Vlcek

Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 148

Publication date: July 2024

ISBN: 9798400284298

$20.00

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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Banks and Banking , Inflation , Money and Monetary Policy , Forecasting and Policy Analysis , Quarterly Projection Model , Monetary Policy , Fiscal Policy , Macroprudential Policies , policy analysis , asset price increase , endogenous monetary policy , parameter categorization , validation method , potential GDP , Inflation , Output gap , Real interest rates , Central bank policy rate , Credit , Global

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Summary

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.