Brazil: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 209

Publication date: July 2024

ISBN: 9798400282898

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Topics covered in this book

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Exports and Imports , Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , Public Finance , public sector Government Finance Statistics , fund's MCP policy , inflation expectation , foreign exchange regime , executive branch , inflation-targeting monetary policy framework , Fiscal stance , Credit , Global

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Summary

The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil’s economy has shown remarkable resilience amid the ongoing disinflation. Economic activity has grown steadily, surpassing expectations, reflecting favorable demand and supply factors. With proactive and adequately restrictive monetary policy, headline inflation has declined to the target tolerance interval. Gross domestic product growth is expected to moderate in 2024, reflecting still restrictive monetary policy, a lower fiscal deficit, the flood calamity in Rio Grande do Sul, and normalization of agricultural output. Growth is projected to strengthen to 2.5 percent over the medium term, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point since the 2023 Article IV Consultation, supported by efficiency gains from the value-added tax reform and growing hydrocarbon output. Investment in green growth opportunities could further boost economic potential. The authorities have advanced their ambitious agenda to foster sustainable, inclusive, and green economic growth. Continuing implementation of reforms that promote trade integration, enhance governance, and simplify business regulation would yield productivity gains.