Canada: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Growth is slowing and headline inflation falling rapidly, but, as in other countries, core inflation has been stickier and short-term expectations elevated in the context of still-tight labor markets. The financial system appears broadly resilient despite global banking stresses and ongoing mortgage resets at higher interest rates. With the world moving from one crisis to the next, risks to a highly open economy like Canada are substantial and compound domestic vulnerabilities related to inflation expectations, the housing market, and household leverage. The outlook thus remains uncertain, and shocks could push the economy into a mild recession.