The economy recovered in 2024 as oil sector rebounded from its slump.
However, fiscal consolidation efforts somewhat waned, auguring the start of a political
cycle. Buffers built during the 2018–21 EFF—supported program are being eroded by
fiscal slippages from higher capital expenditures and a slower fuel subsidy reform.
Nevertheless, public debt relative to GDP declined in 2024, benefiting from high nominal
GDP growth and debt repayments. High external debt service constrains development
spending, while oil dependence represents a drag on sustainable growth. Inflation
remains elevated, fueled by exchange rate depreciation, and import substitution
measures that have restricted food supply. The National Development Plan 2023–27
remains the main element for the authorities’ diversification strategy.