World Economic Outlook, October 2022: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2022 Issue 002

Publication date: October 2022

ISBN: 9798400218439

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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Inflation , Labor , Economics- Macroeconomics , Taxation - General , International - Economics , Public Policy- Environmental Policy , growth , growth outlook , global recession , adverse scenario , output gap , output losses , COVID-19 , pandemic , scarring , inflation , core inflation , inflation expectations , monetary policy , financial conditions , debt distress , sovereign spreads , fiscal policy , disinflation , food and energy prices , Russian gas supplies , pandemic , war in Ukraine , current account , dollar strength , capital flows , China real estate sector , fragmentation , multilateral cooperation , climate change , climate policies , Wages , wage dynamics , wage-price spirals , inflation , labor markets , expectations , monetary policy , interest rates , nominal wages , real wages , unemployment , tightness , supply-demand imbalances , COVID-19 , pandemic , recovery , de-anchoring , Phillips curve , pass-through , demand shocks , supply shocks , supply-chain shocks , sectoral shocks , monetary policy shocks , cost-push shocks , expectations formation , rational expectations , adaptive expectations , adaptive learning , historical episodes , advanced economies , emerging market economies , climate policy , monetary policy , inflation , energy transition , carbon pricing , macroeconomic model , GMMET , output-inflation tradeoff , GHG taxes , green subsidies , green investment , inflation expectation , price inflation , wage-price spiral , wage growth , headline inflation , Carbon tax , Greenhouse gas emissions , Global , Europe , Caribbean , Middle East and Central Asia , Africa

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Summary

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.