Uganda's economic recovery is strengthening on the back of low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong activity in industrial and services sectors. The envisaged start of oil production in late 2025 is expected to further boost growth and improve fiscal and external balances in the medium term. Risks are mostly on the downside, including continued fallout from the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA), which complicates already tight external financing conditions, potential delays in oil production, and climate-related shocks.