Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven... READ MORE...

Publication date: November 2016
ISBN 9781475555530
$9.00

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Publication date: November 2016

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