The Rise and Retreat of US Inflation: An Update

Volume/Issue: Volume 2025 Issue 094

Publication date: May 2025

ISBN: 9798229007719

$20.00

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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Inflation , Inflation , Inflation shocks , Core inflation , Phillips curve , Inflation

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Summary

Why did US inflation rise over 2021-22 and why has it retreated since then? Ball, Leigh, and Mishra (2022), writing near the inflation peak, explained the rise with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations; the tightness of the labor market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment (V/U) ratio; and large changes in relative prices in particular industries such as energy and autos. This paper finds that the same framework explains the retreat in inflation since our earlier work.