The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Debt Sustainability Analysis

Author: International Monetary Fund

Volume/Issue: Volume 2005 Issue 027

Publication date: January 2005

ISBN: 9781451812732

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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Exports and Imports , Economics- Macroeconomics , Public Finance , ISCR , CR , NPV , debt , real GDP , ratio , GDP deflator , NPV of debt-to-exports ratio , debt service indicator , NPV of debt-to-GDP , debt ratio , estimates of NPV , NPV of the public debt , sustainability assessment , burden indicator , PPG debt service-to-exports ratio , NPV of PPG , sustainability framework , Fiscal stance , Exports , Debt sustainability analysis

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Summary

This paper presents key findings of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ethiopia. The stress tests reveal that Ethiopia’s external debt and debt service indicators are particularly sensitive to the terms of new borrowing and negative export shocks. The baseline projections appear fragile to adverse shocks and embody optimistic assumptions relative to Ethiopia’s historical trend over the past 10 years. The public debt DSA indicates some risk arising from output growth and the primary balance remaining at historical averages.