Romania: A Tax Mix to Achieve Fiscal Sustainability and Fairness

Romania’s medium-term fiscal framework calls for the fiscal deficit to decline gradually from about 8 percent of GDP in 2024 to 7 percent in 2025 and 3 percent (or less) by 2031. With limited scope for expenditure consolidation ‒ given the low expenditure-to-GDP ratio ‒ revenue mobilization is imperative. IMF technical assistance proposes a tax reform package aimed at mobilizing revenues, while improving work incentives, remaining attractive to capital investments, and closing loopholes for abusive tax planning. The key recommendations shift the fiscal burden away from labor taxation (including social insurance contributions) toward taxes on consumption and, to a lesser extent, on capital. The detailed recommendations, if fully implemented, can generate revenues of at least 1.2 percent of GDP in 2025.