Republic of Kazakhstan: Enhancing Monetary Analysis and Forecasting Capacity of the National Bank of Kazakhstan

In August 2024, the IMF's CCAMTAC conducted a scoping mission at the request of the National Bank of Kazakhstan to enhance the forecasting capabilities of the Monetary Analysis Division. The mission evaluated the Division's current resources, tools, and data management practices, identifying strengths such as experienced senior staff and adequate IT resources, while noting areas for improvement, including the need for additional training and more consistent forecasting methods. The project aims to develop a robust near-term forecasting system, integrating it into the National Bank's broader policy analysis framework, with execution planned for FY2026. Key risks include staff turnover and resource constraints, with mitigation strategies proposed to ensure success.