Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2015 Issue 137

Publication date: May 2015

ISBN: 9781513576534

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Topics covered in this book

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Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , ISCR , CR , price , pass-through , exchange rate , liberalization , price growth , liberalized prices inflation , price liberalization , inflation expectation , price inflation , price dynamics , regulated price inflation , unregulated price , pass-through inflation , Inflation , Exchange rate pass-through , Consumer price indexes , Exchange rates , Price controls , Eastern Europe

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Summary

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the causes of the high inflation in Belarus. It estimates the contribution of two factors: (1) exchange rate pass-through and (2) administrative price increases. Residual inflation is used as a gauge for inflation caused directly by demand pressures and inflation expectations. It is found that the administrative price increases are a key driver of inflation, even ahead of demand pressures, which also explain a large share of inflation. Although exchange rate pass-through is found to be high and fast, particularly for unregulated prices, its contribution to inflation has been comparatively modest in recent years owing to the stability of the exchange rate.