Regional Economic Outlook, Asia and Pacific, April 2024: Steady Growth amid Diverging Prospects

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Asia and the Pacific is closing in on a soft landing, with resilient growth and cooling price pressures. Regional spillovers from China’s property sector correction remain an important risk, however, while geoeconomic fragmentation clouds medium-term prospects.

Publication date: April 2024

ISBN: 9798400272349

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Topics covered in this book

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Finance , Inflation , Investments and Securities-General , Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , International - Economics , Asia and the Pacific , growth , inflation , China , spillovers , industrial policy , greater-than-expected fiscal policy , monetary policy support , price pressure , IMF staff calculation , property sector correction , near-term inflation expectation , Emerging and frontier financial markets , Monetary tightening , Depreciation , Asia and Pacific , Global , Pacific Islands

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Summary

Growth in Asia and the Pacific outperformed expectations in late 2023, reaching 5.0 percent for the year. Inflation has continued to decline, albeit at varying speeds: some economies are still seeing sustained price pressures, while others are facing deflationary risks. In 2024, growth is projected to slow modestly to 4.5 percent. Near-term risks are now broadly balanced, as global disinflation and the prospect of monetary easing have increased the likelihood of a soft landing. Spillovers from a deeper property sector correction in China remain an important risk, however, while geoeconomic fragmentation clouds medium-term prospects. Given the diverse inflation landscape, central bank policies need to calibrate policies carefully to domestic needs. Fiscal consolidation should accelerate to contain debt burdens and debt service cost, in order to preserve budgetary space for addressing structural challenges, including population aging and climate change.