Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR

Author: Mr. Christoph Duenwald

This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980-98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from "trend." The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40-45 percent above levels suggested by developments in "fundamentals." The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2000 Issue 002

Publication date: January 2000

ISBN: 9781451841756

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Business and Economics , Economics- Macroeconomics , WP , price , property price , real estate , Hong Kong SAR , property prices , speculative bubbles , price change , construction cost variable , HKSAR property market , property price change , price fluctuation , rental price , sample period , property market , real property price , bubble burster , HKSAR government , Land prices , Asset bubbles , Housing , Housing prices , Asset prices , Global

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Summary

This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.