Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic

This paper revisits the potential output of the Kyrgyz Republic considering recent structural shifts and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict.
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2025 Issue 081
Publication date: June 2025
ISBN: 9798229011624
$15.00
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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Inflation , Investments and Securities-General , Labor , Potential Output , Total Factor Productivity , Structural Reforms , Output Gap , Capital Accumulation , Productivity , Migration , Inflation , Gross capital formation , Stocks , Potential output , Labor markets , Total factor productivity , Output gap , Labor force , Unemployment , Vector error correction models

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Summary

This paper revisits the potential output of the Kyrgyz Republic considering recent structural shifts and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict. Utilizing a suite of methodologies – production function, state-space models, and statistical filters – it estimates potential output growth at 5.3 percent, up from around 4.4 percent prior to the pandemic. This increase is primarily driven by capital accumulation and labor force expansion. However, total factor productivity remains below historical averages. The persistently positive output gap points to overheating risks, underscoring the need for counter-cyclical policies and structural reforms.

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