Portugal: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2023 Issue 218

Publication date: June 2023

ISBN: 9798400246050

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Topics covered in this book

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Finance , Labor , Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , Public Finance , International - Economics , portfolio investment data collection system , housing supply , money market rate , IMF staff calculation , special purpose entity data collection initiative , housing market strain , Fiscal stance , Labor markets , Systemic risk , Global

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Summary

The Portuguese economy has sustained its dynamic recovery from the pandemic. Driven by private consumption and external demand, growth in 2022 was markedly higher than the euro area (6.7 percent versus 3.5 percent). Growth is projected to slow to 2.6 percent in 2023, with downdrafts from higher cost of living on domestic demand and a slower external demand growth. Headline inflation is expected to decline from 8.1 percent in 2022 to 5.6 percent in 2023, with core inflation declining more gradually. Near-term risks to the outlook are broadly balanced—key downside risks arise from tighter-than-projected financial conditions and weaker global growth, offset by upsides from tourism.