Morocco:2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Despite the authorities’ very strong policy response, another drought and the economic spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have taken a toll on Morocco’s economy and ignited inflationary pressures. Assuming a return to normal agricultural seasons, stabilization of external economic conditions, and continued progress on the authorities’ rich structural reform agenda, economic activity should rebound in 2023 and stabilize around 3½ percent over the medium term. Inflation is projected to have peaked in 2022 and to start falling in 2023 as the commodity price shock dissipates and the central bank reduces monetary policy accommodation. The negative terms-of-trade shock widened the trade deficit in 2022, but Morocco’s external position is projected to improve from 2023 onwards, also thanks to strong remittances and tourism inflows.