Fiscal Monitor, October 2024

Putting a Lid on Public Debt

High debt is a concern. The chapter quantifies the risks surrounding public debt outlook and sets out policies to rebuild fiscal buffers to address those risks.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 002

Publication date: October 2024

ISBN: 9798400281266

$50.00

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Topics covered in this book

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Finance , Economics- Macroeconomics , Public Finance , Business and Economics - Statistics , public debt , debt-at-risk , sovereign yields , fiscal adjustment , fiscal framework , fiscal governance , unidentified debt , contingent liabilities , economy abbreviation , debt restructuring process , inflation expectation , growth resilience , debt vulnerability , emerging market economy , Fiscal consolidation , Fiscal stance , Government finance statistics , Public sector , Global , Caribbean , Asia and Pacific , North Africa , Middle East

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Summary

Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP. Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.