Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade

Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2021 Issue 293
Publication date: December 2021
ISBN: 9781616357634
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Topics covered in this book

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Exports and Imports , Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , Economics / General , SWIFT , trade forecast , machine learning , trade message , IMF working papers , DFM forecast , IMF working paper No , 21/293 , linear regression forecast , Merchandise export , Imports , Exports , Credit , Trade finance , Trade balance , Global , Australia and New Zealand , Asia and Pacific

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Summary

This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic.

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