Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2024: Asia and Pacific: Resilient Growth but Higher Risks

Short-term prospects for Asia and the Pacific have improved slightly, even though growth is still expected to moderate in 2024 and 2025. Risks have increased, including geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about the strength of global demand.

Publication date: October 2024

ISBN: 9798400287220

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Topics covered in this book

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Banks and Banking , Exports and Imports , Finance , Inflation , Asia and the Pacific , growth , inflation , monetary policy , fiscal policy , China , AE Asia , emerging economy , headline inflation , foreign direct investment , monetary management , Asia EMDEs , EM Asia , Pacific island economy , ASEAN region , export opportunity , exports to the world , monetary policy response , Exports , Emerging and frontier financial markets , Central bank policy rate , Foreign direct investment , Asia and Pacific , Global , Pacific Islands , Central Asia

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Summary

Short-term prospects for Asia and the Pacific have improved slightly compared to the IMF’s April forecasts, even though growth is still expected to moderate in 2024 and 2025. The regional growth projection for 2024 has been marked up to 4.6 percent from 4.5 percent in April, largely reflecting the over-performance in the first half of the year, and the region is forecast to contribute roughly 60 percent to global growth in 2024. In 2025, more accommodative monetary conditions are expected to support activity, resulting in a slight upward growth revision to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in April. Inflation has retreated in much of the region. At the same time, risks have increased, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the strength of global demand, and potential for financial volatility. Demographic change will act increasingly as a brake on activity, though structural shifts into high-productivity sectors such as tradable services hold promise to sustain robust growth.